Global forecast for 2025 sees temperatures falling back below 1.5°C
La Niña conditions are expected to lead to a slightly cooler average global surface temperature in 2025, though it does not mean the planet as a whole has stopped warming
By Michael Le Page
12 December 2024
A severe storm brought on by La Niña in Queensland, Australia
Genevieve Vallee / Alamy Stock Photo
The average global surface temperature during 2025 will be between 1.29°C and 1.53°C – and most likely 1.41°C – above the pre-industrial average, according to a forecast by the Met Office, the UK’s national weather and climate service. That is slightly cooler than 2024, which is set to be the first calendar year to exceed 1.5°C.
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“2024 will end up being near the top of our forecast confidence interval,” says Nick Dunstone of the Met Office. “This can happen by chance, but taken together with 2023 the observed global temperatures have been somewhat warmer than forecast.”
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The forecasted fall in surface temperature in 2025 will be a result of heat being transferred from the atmosphere to the oceans due to the La Niña phenomenon, and does not mean the planet as a whole has stopped warming. The overall heat content of the oceans and atmosphere continues to rise because of increasing carbon dioxide emissions from human activities leading to higher atmospheric levels of CO2.
“Like most other climate prediction systems, the Met Office systems are going for a weak La Niña event in the coming months,” says Dunstone.
